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If you have ever tried to predict stock market volatility, you have run into a frustrating reality:

For decades, standard statistical models assumed something called homoscedasticity —a fancy way of saying "constant variance." But financial returns are clearly heteroscedastic (changing variance). arch models

Big moves tend to be followed by big moves (in either direction), and quiet periods tend to be followed by quiet periods. If you plot the S&P 500 or Bitcoin returns, you don’t see random scatter. You see pockets of chaos and pockets of calm. If you have ever tried to predict stock